Shocks exógenos y crisis en América Latina: una propuesta de indicador de vulnerabilidad

Abstract

This research develops an economic vulnerability index that provides early warning signals of a growth crisis for Latin America in cases of exogenous shocks for the period 2000 - 2018. Two complementary approaches are used to map the information of the underlying indicators in an economic vulnerability index. The first refers to the probit model that identifies the determinants of the probability of growth crisis and the second corresponds to the signaling approach with which this index is constructed. The results indicate that the main variables related to the probability of a growth crisis are: fiscal deficit, gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign direct investment (FDI); and according to the second approach, the variables that best classify between a crisis and non-crisis period are: inflation and income from the central government. It is observed that the movements of the vulnerability index agree with what happened in the region for the study period, showing high levels of vulnerability in 2008 and 2015.