Diseño de un modelo estadístico para la estimación de tiempos de fabricación en la línea de montaje final de cajón de una planta de muebles de madera en la ciudad de Cuenca

Abstract

This study aims to design a statistical model for estimating manufacturing times on the final assembly line of drawers at a wooden furniture factory in the city of Cuenca. The research stems from the need to improve production planning using quantitative tools that reduce the error associated with empirical time estimates. The methodology employed is quantitative, based on real manufacturing data. Initially, an ABC analysis was applied to historical demand data for the year 2024 to select representative products for the study. Subsequently, time studies were conducted using direct observation time studies with the zero-time method, recording only the effective processing time at each defined workstation. With the collected data, multiple linear regression models were structured at the product family level, considering physical and design characteristics as independent variables. The results showed a high level of model fit, with coefficients of determination greater than 0.89 for all product families analyzed and mean absolute percentage error values less than 6%. It was also determined that product volume is one of the variables with the greatest influence on manufacturing time. In conclusion, the proposed model constitutes a reliable tool to support production planning and improve operational efficiency in the wooden furniture industry.