“Predicción de quiebra en empresas manufactureras del cantón Cuenca bajo el modelo Z1 Altman”

Abstract

The manufacturing industry is a cornerstone of Latin America economies, specifically in Cuenca, Ecuador, where it significantly drives GDP, tax collection, and employment. While the Altman Z-score has been previously adapted to the Ecuadorian context with high accuracy, there remains a need for localized models that account for specific regional economic dynamics. This study aims to analyze bankruptcy risk in manufacturing firms in Cuenca by re- estimating the Altman Z-score model to provide a robust financial management tool. Employing a quantitative methodology with Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), we utilized a non-experimental, longitudinal, and cross-sectorial design. The study analyzed financial data from 2019 to 2023 using a non-probabilistic sample of 276 private manufacturing companies. We tested null hypotheses stating that no bankruptcy risk exists among these firms and that the re-estimated coefficients do not differ from Altman’s original parameters. Our findings resulted in the “Z Cuenca” model, specifically calibrated for the local manufacturing sector. The re-estimated model achieved an accuracy rate of 89.1% in identifying firms at risk of insolvency over the five-year period. The results demonstrate that localized coefficient adjustment significantly enhances the predictive power of traditional insolvency models, offering stakeholders a precise instrument for credit risk assessment and strategic financial planning.