Indicadores hidrológicos para eventos de inundación en la subcuenca del rio Tarqui

Abstract

The Tarqui River sub-basin, located in the southwest of the City of Cuenca, has experienced peak flow events with severe repercussions for the population for several years. Previous studies evaluated historical flow records using histograms of different peak flow events and found that the strongest floods do not always correspond with recorded extraordinary precipitation events. For this reason, it is recommended to use a rainfall-runoff model to generate peak hydrograph flows, considering other hydrological factors. For the present study, the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) model was proposed as the optimal tool. This "gray box" model includes tools that indirectly describe the basin's moisture conditions based on antecedent rainfall and flow conditions. By implementing this methodology for flow prediction, efficient results were obtained for flood risk management with limited data series. Subsequently, to discern the risk of such precipitation events, a limited flood model was generated to assess the risk based on the inundation area. Flows were determined as thresholds for maximum basin response, along with the prediction time determined by the model, and continuous monitoring was recommended upon reaching these thresholds. These could be part of a risk reduction system that strengthens risk management.