Determinantes de la probabilidad de estar desempleado en el Ecuador: evidencia micro y macroeconómica en el periodo 2008-2013

Abstract

Unemployment is part of both economic and social issues. In the labor market the unemployment rate allows us to see unemployment in the economically active population. Currently in Ecuador are observed the lowest unemployment rates, but nevertheless , this does not imply that it is an acceptable situation , since there are thousands of individuals who cannot find a job that allows them to satisfy their needs. The labor market has been studied in micro and macroterms, and at the same time by both the sides of supply and demand. This paper presents a microeconomic model to estimate the probability of being unemployed individuals in Ecuador. It aims to find evidence to explain micro and macroeconomic situation of no occupation. In the labor market the labor factor is offered by individuals and demanded from companies or employers. For this research a labor market is assumed with imperfect information, which means that there are information gaps that make job seekers are not well informed about existing job vacancies, and employers are not aware of how many individuals available to work there. To calculate the probability, we make econometric estimations using the “logit”, “probit”, and “linear probability model” methods. The macroeconomic component is analyzed by the unemployment rate and GDP