Relación entre la cuenta corriente y los términos de intercambio. Una aproximación VAR para el Ecuador, periodo 2000 I - 2017 IV

Abstract

This document analyzes the causal relationship between the Current Account and the Terms of Exchange for the Ecuadorian economy. Likewise, it seeks to demonstrate the existence or not of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect for a quarterly series of data between the years 2000 and 2017. Causal relationships are assessed by estimating a structural VAR model that incorporates variables as the Index of Exchange Terms and the balance of the Current Account, in addition to control variables such as GDP and the Real Exchange Rate. The analysis of impulse - response functions is performed, which determines that in the case of positive and unanticipated shocks in the terms of trade, the current account balance presents a favorable response in the short term, an effect that is then attenuated and has the state stationary, result that supports the existence of the HLM effect for the Ecuadorian economy. In turn, the analysis of variance decomposition shows that the terms of exchange explain about 50% of the variance of the current account, while the other 50% is explained by own shocks in the current account, shocks by the side of supply and shocks caused by demand.