Análisis de escenarios de cambio climático, determinando parámetros de correlación entre series de datos a escala diaria y horaria en la cuenca del Tomebamba

Abstract

The impact of climate change on water resources is a problem when quantifying the availability of resources for appropriate use. Greater variability in extreme precipitation events, as well as the increase in average surface temperature, highlight the negative impacts of Climate Change on ecosystems. In mountain areas, Climate Change studies are relatively scarce due to the low coverage of meters that provide information in fine resolutions (e.g., hourly) of hydrometeorological variables. In the present work, trends were made on historical series for precipitation and temperature, for different seasons within the Tomebamba river basin. In addition, the A2 emission scenario was used to obtain future rainfall series and analyze their variability with respect to the historical series. Because historical and future series are presented in a daily resolution, disaggregation methods were used to obtain synthetic hourly series, which rescue the statistics of the observed daily series. These methods show a good performance when comparing the statistics of the observed and simulated series. The trend results show greater variability in precipitation behavior for projected future series, as well as increases in mean temperature for the lower zone of the basin in its historical record.