Evolución de la recaudación tributaria y su relación con el ciclo económico bajo el cambio de regímenes de Markov

Abstract

Tax collection depends on the level of economic activity; in turn, booms and busts in output can cause asymmetric impacts on tax collection. This research focuses on analyzing the relationship between GDP and the collection of representative taxes in the Ecuadorian economy during the period 2000-2023, using the Markov – Switching methodology that generates models that consider stochastic changes in the series, obtaining information on the regimes of the business cycles and their probabilities of state changes as a consequence of external shocks. The results obtained show expansion and recession states for the four taxes. Specifically, for the collection of income tax, a more recurrent and robust deceleration regime is found, being a highly persistent state, with the collection of the direct tax falling constantly in its business cycle. In the case of indirect taxes (VAT, ICE, IA), the growth state varies in magnitude but exhibits a pattern of persistence and longer duration in relation to the recession state, which would indicate that the collection of these taxes would increase in a sustained manner over time, with few possibilities of transition. The application of the methodology and the calculation of transition probabilities allows contributing with elements that reduce fiscal uncertainty and improve the quantitative analysis of the tax system.