Análisis de la estructura temporal de las tasas de interés como predictor de la producción real en el ecuador para el periodo 2000- 2013

Abstract

This paper examinesthe predictive capacity oftheTerm StructureofInterest RatesonReal ProductioninEcuadorwithin periodofdollarization.Most of the papers made indeveloped countries have found thatthe yield curve from term structureis a goodpredictorof the growth offuture economic activity. So, we estimate an econometric model by the Error Correction Method (ECM), finding that Ecuadorian case the spread of interest rate does not contain yet a predictive information about real growth output, these results could mainly be due to the lack of development of the domestic financial market which leads to a lack of financial-culture of the economic agents, and minimal variability of interest rates ensuing the recent years. Consequently, we may find that in Ecuador the economic agents are pending in the evolution of the real interest rate to model their behaviors, which confirms that the real interest rate is most suitable to predict future changes in production.