Identificación de zonas gentrificadas en el Centro Histórico de Lima en base a los datos del periodo intercensal 2007 - 2017

Abstract

This research identifies areas undergoing gentrification within the Historic Centre of Lima (HCL), Peru, located within the area designated as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, through the analysis of socio-spatial transformations during the 2007–2017 intercensal period. The study is based on the premise that urban revitalization and heritage conservation policies, by prioritizing tourism and economic profitability, have contributed to the displacement of traditional residents toward peripheral areas and to the deterioration of the historic social fabric. The research adopts the methodology proposed by Orellana (2024), adapting its predictive model of statistical indicators to the context of the Historic Centre of Lima using data from the National Censuses conducted by the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), processed through Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Due to limitations in the availability of census information, the original model of 18 variables was adjusted to a total of 9 indicators, evaluating three key dimensions—social, demographic, and economic—at the urban block level. The results, validated through fieldwork (observation sheets and perception surveys), analysis of historical imagery from Google Earth Pro, and documentary review, enabled the spatial identification of urban blocks experiencing the greatest pressure of socio-spatial transformation and vulnerability. Finally, the study proposes urban, social, and heritage management strategies and recommendations aimed at counteracting the negative effects of gentrification, mitigating residential displacement, and preserving the identity of the area.