Análisis de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública externa del Ecuador durante el periodo 2000-2022

Abstract

At the last few years, both the level of indebtedness and interest rates have increased considerably in the country, generating concern in the economy, especially regarding the limitation of public resources that could be generated. Therefore, the present study analyzes the sustainability of the external public debt in the period 2000-2020. To this end, an autoregressive model of debt has been estimated, which includes variables of income, debt and expenses, as well as the estimated a set of indicators, such as the Primary Gap, Blanchard, Debt / GDP ratio, among others. The results indicate that the debt is weakly sustainable and the adjustment coefficient estimates that approximately 27% of the imbalances in the short term are being corrected in the subsequent period towards the long-term trajectory. Therefore, it is important to renegotiate interest rates to reduce the commitment acquired for debt service, especially since 2014 and, thereby, free up resources to meet the socio-economic needs of the population