Análisis de estrés financiero en cooperativas del segmento 1 al 3 en Ecuador

Abstract

This research analyzes financial stress in savings and credit cooperatives in segments one to three in Ecuador by identifying the financial indicators that explain its occurrence and evaluating their ability to act as early warning signals. Cooperatives are classified as either financially stress-free (CSE) or financially stressed (CCE). In addition, the financial stress event is set for December 2024, and logistic regression models are applied at different time horizons (36, 24, 12, and 6 months before the event). Among the main findings, it is noteworthy that the financial indicators of capital adequacy (C1), capital vulnerability (C4), operational efficiency (M1), and delinquency (A2) significantly explain financial stress. Financial indicators C1 and C4 were statistically significant from 24 months prior to the event, variable M1 was significant from 12 months prior, while A2 was only relevant during the period of financial stress. It is concluded that a specific set of indicators allows financial stress to be anticipated, recommending their integration into early warning systems to facilitate monitoring and the timely adoption of corrective measures.