Determinación de la matriz origen-destino para el cantón Santa Isabel dentro del Plan de Movilidad Santa Isabel 2020-2030 utilizando un modelo matemático estocástico

Abstract

The city hall of Santa Isabel is currently developing a mobility plan to improve the quality of transportation on both economic and social fronts. A crucial aspect within this context is the construction of a matrix summarizing the generation and attraction of trips from various origin zones to destination zones. This matrix yields several advantages, including the identification of traffic volume, road classification, assessment of transport capacity, infrastructure design, and impact evaluation on mobility. The methodology employed relies on a stochastic mathematical model (MME in spanish) comprising three key components: input data (population, study area, etc.), analysis of dependent and independent variables (demand forecast and trip distribution), and information generation (OD matrices). The MME draws on the Classical Transportation Model, specifically focusing on stages 1 and 2: Trip Generation and Trip Distribution. These stages provide the number of trips made and identify their corresponding origin and destination zones. For the first stage, sociodemographic characteristics of the population in the origin zone are used, and attraction is calculated based on the travel supply in the destination zone. As for trip distribution, the gravity model is employed. The outcomes yield disaggregated OD matrices categorized by trip purpose and period, as well as an aggregated OD matrix. These matrices identify key production and attraction zones for trips and periods of high and low demand.