Análisis del riesgo de insolvencia en las grandes empresas del sector manufacturero de la ciudad de Cuenca en el periodo 2019 - 2022

Abstract

This project aims to determine the probability of insolvency of large enterprises in the manufacturing industry of Cuenca during the period 2019 – 2022, by using the econometric model for business failure prediction and logistic regression analysis developed by James Ohlson. Additionally, it seeks to identify and analyze the key factors that influence the increase in business failure risk. For this purpose, financial information of 29 companies that are part of sector C of the ISIC in Ecuador was collected from the Superintendency of Companies, Securities and Insurance website. Among the main results, it was found that, on average, companies in the sector are within safe zones; however, the level of risk they present is moderate. Furthermore, it was determined that the probability of insolvency in the sector reached its peak during the pandemic but showed improvement from 2021 onwards, marking a decreasing trend over time. Finally, through a linear regression in SPSS, it was found that, from the variables proposed by the author, the most significant in predicting bankruptcy is the debt ratio (X2), concluding that financial leverage is a factor that directly affects the probability of insolvency in the manufacturing industry.