La dimensión espacial de la pobreza por necesidades básicas insatisfechas en Ecuador. Un análisis para los años 2001, 2010 y 2022

Abstract

This paper analyses the spatial distribution of poverty in Ecuador during the period 2001-2022 using spatial econometric techniques. A notable, though insufficient, decrease in poverty measured by Unsatisfied Basic Needs (UBN) was found by 2022, with widespread persistence of deficiencies in terms of economic capacity and access to basic services. On the other hand, significant regional inequalities remain, with a high concentration of poverty in the coastal and Amazonian regions, while some areas of the Sierra experienced more sustained improvements. Poverty clustering was strengthened, with an increase in high poverty clusters and the consolidation of low poverty clusters in certain regions. This geographic pattern of poverty is supported by a significant increase in spatial autocorrelation by 2022. The explanatory factors of poverty showed that education was crucial for its reduction, although with indirect effects that increase poverty in neighbouring regions. Furthermore, the productive structure showed that the concentration of work in the primary and secondary sectors contributed to the increase in poverty, while the tertiary sector favoured its reduction. Labour informality was linked to a mitigation of local poverty, although there is evidence that its negative effects spread to neighbouring regions. These findings underline the spatial heterogeneity of poverty in Ecuador, and therefore, the need to implement targeted policies based on the characteristics of the territory in order to reduce regional deficiencies in the country.