Impacto del cambio climático en los caudales de una cuenca de páramo. Primera aproximación

Abstract

The páramo is a very important source of water resources for many cities of Ecuador and the Andean region. This ecosystem may be threatened by climate change produced by CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. The present study analized the potential impact of climate change for the ows of Huagrahuma catchment. This catchment is located in the northwest part of the city of Cuenca, with height of 4120 m.a.s.l and belongs to the headwaters of the basin of theMach_angara river. Observed data series of rainfall, ow and evapotranspiration during the period 01/09/2010 - 30/12/2011 is obtained from stations located along the catchment. This study used the VHM conceptual rainfall-runo_ model (VeralgemeendconceptueelHydrologisch Model for its acronym in Dutch) for the ow modeling with future rainfall and evapotranspiration series with three future climate scenarios representing high, medium and low impact. The survey results indicate that high ow vary in a proportional way to the emissions. This means that the more CO2 emissions the higher peak ows is modeled. By contrast, low peak ows showed an inversely proportional relationship to the emissions. Additionally, it was found that periods of drought for the observed series occurred in a higher frequently way but with lower durations than in the future modeled scenarios. This indicates that levels of saturation are not getting reached. This variation was major in the case of more emissions. The results of this study supports the understanding of magnitudes and incidences of climate changes in High Andean ecosystems.