La importancia de los encadenamientos productivos en el desarrollo regional. Evidencia empírica de la provincia del Guayas para el año 2019

Abstract

The pronounced economic and social territorial heterogeneity in Ecuador causes that a large part of the aggregate production of the economy be generated in a single province (Guayas), while the vast majority have an insignificant contribution. This research seeks to determine the size of regional productive chains and the importance of Guayas in these relations for the year 2019. A hybrid multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) was built, using this approach as a base and both localization coefficients (LQ) and adjustment techniques (RAS). The data used correspond to i) the National and Regional Accounts of the Central Bank of Ecuador, ii) the National Survey of Employment, Unemployment and Underemployment (ENEMDU) and, iii) the Transactional Annex (ATS). The results indicate that the direct effect in the province of Guayas reaches, on average, 81% of the total effect, while the spillover effect amounts to 19%, of which the Neighboring Provinces obtain approximately 52% of that spillage; on the other hand, provinces such as Pichincha, Azuay or Manabí, do not have a significant impact on the productive chain of Guayas, so it is inferred that this province does have an influence on the regional development of the other provinces of the country, but this is weak. The research concludes by mentioning that public policies should be carried out focused on improving the territorial connectivity that Guayas has with others, especially with the Neighboring Provinces, which were the most benefited in each scenario analyzed.