The pacific decadal oscillation modulates the relation of ENSO with the rainfall variability in coast of Ecuador

Abstract

Worldwide and likewise in Ecuador, the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events had devastating effects in the economic and human dimension. Thus, scientists and decision markers look for a deeper knowledge about ENSO and its phases El Niño (EN)/La Niña (LN). Recent research highlights the changing nature of ENSO under opposite conditions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), making the assessment of the ENSO–PDO relation in Ecuador urgent. This study explores the time-frequency characteristics of rainfall in the coast of Ecuador from January to April (PC-JA) and evaluates the influence of PDO in the relation of ENSO with PC-JA. For this, wavelet analysis was used to asses this nonstationary problem, Five long-term (1964–2014) ground stations were used. The main results indicate that during the warm PDO period 1980–2000, the high wavelet coherence (ca. 0.9) implies a strong coupling between ENSO and PC-JA. For cold PDO periods, prior to 1980 and after 2005, such coupling weakens with coherence about 0.5. This might indicate that PDO influence the relation between ENSO and rainfall in the coast of Ecuador. This coupling, during warm PDO, enhances high rainfall when in phase with EN, and drought conditions in LN events. The weak coupling of ENSO-PC-JA during cold PDO produces high rainfall amounts in Niño Neutral conditions and droughts during Neutral and LN. To account for ENSO flavours variability, the wavelet coherence between PC-JA and the two ENSO uncorrelated indices E and C from Takahashi et al. was studied. Interestingly, we show that PDO warm phase influences the relation of Eastern Pacific related E index with PC-JA from 2 to 8 years periods, and that the orthogonal Central Pacific related C index is not affected. These results raise questions about the validity of ENSO indices for contrasting PDO phases. © 2020 Royal Meteorological Society