Análisis del impacto del gasto público sobre la inflación en la economía ecuatoriana en el período 2000-2012

Abstract

The current paper analyzes inflation under a macroeconomic approach of the Keynesian School; this approach is the closest to the internal reality of our country during the post dollarization period. It also applies an econometric model based on the technique of Autoregressive Vectors, which will help us to determine the causal relation between the increase of public expense of the last years and the variations of price levels for the same period; also the determining factors of inflation in Ecuador will be determined. This project follows the directions of previous studies about this topic: the main guide and base of the research work performed by the Central Bank of Ecuador under the responsibility of Gatchet, Maldonado and Perez (2008) “Determining Factors of Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Ecuadorian Case”, some other similar research papers add to this economic theory. With this, 17 variables have been identified; from them 7 have been selected as explicative variables, including late inflation; this selection was done through test and previous estimations. After analyzing the results, we discovered that the most relevant variable is the level of prices in the post dollarization period is the Real Exchange Rate and even though the increase of Public Expenses is directly related with the increase of general prices level, this variable is not the most influent.