Identificación de la gentrificación urbana en base de un modelo predictivo en el Centro Histórico de la ciudad de Cartagena de Indias

Abstract

This study analyzes the socio-spatial transformations in the Historic Center of Cartagena de Indias (Centro, San Diego, and Getsemaní). It addresses gentrification as a structural process of real estate reclamation and touristification that displaces vulnerable indigenous populations and commodifies heritage. To go beyond traditional descriptive analyses, the study implements a quantitative, spatial, and predictive model based on a longitudinal analysis of microdata from the 2005 and 2018 censuses. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), fifteen multidimensional variables (social, demographic, and economic) were processed. The algorithm identified areas with atypical intercensal variations, detecting a collapse in the original population density alongside exponential increases in higher education and connectivity. The results reveal selective spatial exclusion: San Diego and Centro show established residential depopulation, while Getsemaní acts as the active frontier of territorial dispossession, catalyzed by regulatory neglect and the aesthetic prioritization of heritage. Finally, the research provides preventive guidelines based on the microspatial risk of each city block, proposing cadastral safeguards, tourist saturation quotas, and the capture of capital gains to finance a compensatory fund that defends the Right to the City.