Análisis del riesgo financiero asociado al financiamiento del sector lechero y su incidencia en la calificación del riesgo institucional mediante el método CAMEL en la Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Yuyay Ltda

Abstract

The cooperative provides financing to dairy associations to bridge liquidity gaps, but it assumes risks due to its reliance on payments. The overall objective of this study was to analyze the impact of financing provided to the dairy sector on the financial risk of the Yuyay Savings and Credit Cooperative, Ltd., through the application of stress scenarios and the analysis of financial indicators using the CAMEL method. The methodology was quantitative, non-experimental, with an explanatory scope, and utilized financial risk diagnostic tools through the CAMEL model and stress testing. The findings indicate that, under normal conditions, the Yuyay Cooperative has a portfolio with moderate delinquency (3.8%) and adequate coverage (116.25%). However, the stress analysis suggests a high level of sensitivity to the dairy sector, where delinquency could rise to 6.0% in a moderate scenario and up to 7.1% in a severe one, causing liquidity and asset quality to be affected. The portfolio has a significant exposure to this sector (11.02%), indicating a latent risk. Using the CAMEL method, the cooperative receives a B rating (3.75), indicating moderate risk, with strengths in liquidity, profitability, and management, and weaknesses in asset quality, highlighting the need to improve credit risk management.