El papel del optimismo y aversión al riesgo en la propensión a migrar de los jóvenes residentes en zonas de alta migración: caso aplicado al cantón Cuenca utilizando un enfoque experimental

Abstract

This article aims to determine the influence of risk aversion and optimism on the propensity to migrate of teenagers who live in Cuenca in areas with different levels of migratory influence, considering the current pandemic reality. To do this, we worked with a total sample of 88 teens between 15 and 18 years old, divided in three groups according to the area in which they live: high, medium, and low migration. We obtained the variables of interest using experimental and behavioral methods. Therefore, we calculated the risk aversion variable using a lottery game. In turn, the optimism variable was calculated by applying a psychological test of vision of the future. The influence of the variables on the propensity to migrate was estimated by applying a binary response probit model. The results show a high-risk tolerance in the three groups; teenagers with a greater propensity to migrate have much higher and marked optimistic biases than those who do not want to migrate. However, these variables did not statistically influence the propensity to migrate. Finally, we found that the objective variables: receiving remittances, having relatives abroad, having the United States as a destination, and the area in which the teenage resides, play an essential role in the propensity to migrate.