Tendencias temporales de homicidios en el Ecuador en el periodo 2000 al 2022

Abstract

Background: In recent decades, homicides have been among the leading causes of mortality in Ecuador. Objectives: To evaluate the temporal and geographic trends of homicides in Ecuador in the period 2000 - 2022, and to estimate the years of life lost. Methods: An ecological time series study was conducted using secondary data obtained from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). Homicides identified by CIE 10 codes: X85 to Y09 and Y35. Crude and adjusted rates were estimated by sex, age, region, province and area. Joinpoint regression was used for time trends and maps were constructed for geographic distribution. Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLLL) were calculated. Results: During a 23-year period, 42343 homicides occurred. There were three main trends with a marked increase in the year 2020. There were fluctuating rates of 5,80 in 2018 and in 2022, 24,7 homicides per 100000 inhabitants. Males with a rate of 22,2 and young people aged 20-29 years with 25,2 per 100000 inhabitants were the main victims. The Coast region comprises the majority of homicides, along with the provinces of Sucumbíos, Esmeraldas and the urban area. In 2022, APVP for homicides were considerably higher. Conclusions: There has been a significant increase in homicides in recent years, especially among young men, linked to premature deaths. The coastal region, provinces such as Sucumbíos, Esmeraldas, and the urban area, are the locations with the highest frequency of homicides in Ecuador.