Volumen 8 No. 2 (2017)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://dspace-test.ucuenca.edu.ec/handle/123456789/29339

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Consecuencias económicas en el Producto Interno Bruto del decrecimiento poblacional en los países que atraviesan la fase final de su transición demográfica
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2017) Donoso Correa, Mario Ernesto; Cordero Cueva, Paula Milena; Córdova Gonzalez, Nelson Federico
Countries have been characterized by demographic growth since the end of the 18th century until the last decades of the 20th century, when some nations began to stabilize and even decrease their populations. Those countries went through the different stages of the demographic transition model, because fertility rates decreased below the replacement levels of the population, causing concern to the governments of those countries, especially in relation to the possible decline of their economies. This study shows that rather the economic consequences of a decline in population, despite being negative from the macro point of view, are positive for households, if the economies manage to remain stable. The dwindling down of the population shall cause underemployment and unemployment to decrease, generating better income and more consumption for families. The sooner governments prepare and adjust their economies, societies will be better prepared to adapt to this demographic change that will inevitably occur everywhere, as the urbanization process advances during this century and the next one.
Ambiente de aprendizaje en el hogar, instrucción materna y desempeño numérico temprano
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2017) Bojorque, Gina; Cabrera, Patricio
Even before the start of formal schooling, there are large individual differences in children’s numerical performance, however, the knowledge about the mechanisms through which young children develop numerical abilities is limited. Certain contextual characteristics surrounding the children, including the home learning environment and the mother’s education, have been associated with children’s numerical performance. Research on this topic has been conducted mostly in developed countries, which makes the generality of those findings for developing countries, an open question. The aim of the present study was to examine the relations between the home learning environment and the mother’s education and the numerical abilities of first-grade children. A total of 176 cuencano children from public and private schools participated in the study. The results indicate that certain characteristics of the home environment, such as the numerical and literacy activities that parents perform with their children, are not related to the numerical performance of the children. However, the number of books for children available in the home is predictively related to their numerical performance. Similarly, the level of maternal education has a predictive relationship with children´s numerical performance.
Métodos para la evaluación del riesgo de inundación fluvial: revisión de literatura y propuesta metodológica para Ecuador
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2017) Pinos, Juan; Timbe, Luis; Orellana, Daniel
Floods represent one of the most frequent natural hazards globally, resulting in considerable economic and social losses in affected populations. Approaches based on risk assessment are increasingly accepted and incorporated into flood risk management in recent decades. Despite considerable progress in the development of loss estimation tools, they still present high uncertainties and disparities that often lead to questioning their quality. This work presents an in-depth and updated review of the different analytical and methodological tools incorporated in several existing models. A comparative analysis of the methodologies showed that the components and characteristics included by the different methods are highly heterogeneous and the vast majority do not incorporate an explicit validation of the model results. This comparison required a deep understanding of the structures, mechanisms and underlying assumptions of each method. Finally, the paper presents the general characteristics and the main components of a methodological proposal for the analytical evaluation of flood loss estimates for Ecuador, from the synthesis of all the evaluated methods and based on the available data.
Cycling and public transportation sharing space: an option to increase cycling ridership
(2017) Cazorla Vanegas, Nora Patricia
Allowing cyclists in bus lanes is an alternative to encourage diversity in mobility within consolidated cities, as this allows providing an infrastructure for cycling in places where for the limited right-of-way it is not possible to provide an independent lane. Apart of efficiency and safety, combining two modes of transport in the same space generates concerns such as the bus-cyclist interaction. Therefore, the design of shared bus-bike lanes (SBBLs) should ensure efficiency and safety for buses and cyclists. The lack of a general standard for the design of SBBLs hindered their implementation in the cities of developing countries that generally lack the human, economic and technical resources to adjust via research the design to the prevailing local conditions. This paper presents an analysis of design guidelines for SBBLs applied in Europe, North America and Australia, showing that the type of cycling infrastructure, the alignment within the SBBL and the lane width, are the parameters that should be considered to ensure safety and efficiency of these two modes. Furthermore, review of the literature on bus and bicycle mobility systems in Paris, revealed that increasing the public transport and cycling ridership not only depends on the quality of the built infrastructure, but also on the coordination between the design, operation, enforcement and control of the proper use of such structures and the measures implemented to discourage the use of private vehicles.
WEAP21 based modelling under climate change considerations for a semi-arid region in southern-central Chile
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2017) Duque, L.F.; Vázquez, Raúl F.
The water balance of an irrigation project in the Chilean semi-arid zone was modelled using the WEAP21 code. A combined deterministic/stochastic protocol was applied for defining the hydrological prediction intervals of the model. Climate Change potential implications on the useful life of the irrigation project (year 2070) were predicted considering the variability in precipitation and temperature forecasts. Thereto, it was considered the scenario A1B of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, generated by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS-ECHAM, specially developed for Chilean conditions. The study revealed that most of the inspected hydrological model parameters are insensitive to model predictions and the associated simulation limits may be categorized as acceptable. Nevertheless, the structure of WEAP21 had difficulties representing low flows because of the apparent inability to mimic the complex hydro-physical characteristics of the shrink-swell granitic soils which are predominant in the study basin. Even though the original Climate Change projections (CChP) of the RCM were refined, using observations of the historical period, it is important to underline that significant uncertainties may remain and as such the current results should be handled with care. With respect to historical records, mean annual climate forecasts suggest a maximum temperature increment of about +1.1oC and a maximum reduction in precipitation of 20.7%. The hydrological modelling suggests a maximum reduction in the mean annual streamflow of 49.7% and a reduction in the magnitude and frequency of streamflow peaks. Bearing in mind the potential uncertainties attached to CChP, the irrigation project will most probably be significantly affected in terms of water availability and crop water consumption since rainfall is expected to decrease and temperature, and as such evapotranspiration, to increase.
Análisis del grado de satisfacción de los adultos mayores de las provincias de Azuay y Cañar
(2017) Ortiz Segarra, José Ignacio; Freire Argudo, Ulises Vicente; Álvarez Serrano, Marlene Elizabeth; Tenemaza Alvarracin, David Fernando; Cobos Torres, Angel Ignacio; Zhindón Galán, Martha Dalila; Larriva Vásquez, María Eulalia
Objective. Analysis of the perceptions about the exercise of the rights of the elderly in the provinces of Azuay and Cañar. Methodology. An analytical cross-sectional study was carried out involving 538 elderly people living in the coverage areas of the first-level health centers, belonging to the Ministry of Public Health and the Rural Social Security, through the application of a rights form, previously validated.Results. The mean age was 75.20 ± 7.22 years (65 to 100 years), the majority were women, married, with primary education and 33% illiteracy. 81% of participants consider their standard of living to be adequate. Living alone is a factor associated with the inadequate exercise of rights in a statistically significant way (OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.46-3.68). Age, marital status, occupation, education, self-identification, are also associated with inadequate exercise of rights, but not significantly.Conclusions. Eight out of ten older adults consider that the exercise of their rights is adequate, and in the group that feels dissatisfaction, solitude is a statistically significant associated factor. This situation reveals the importance of generating social networks of support between peers, with inter-institutionalsupport and especially of local community organizations, to achieve the full exercise of rights, without exclusions.
Análisis espacial-temporal de procesos relacionados con concentraciones de oxígeno disuelto en lagunas de maduración
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2017) Arévalo, María B.; Echelpoe, Wout Van; Alvarado, Andrés O.; Goethals, Peter L. M.; Larriva, Josué B.
This article presents the analysis of the variability of dissolved oxygen concentrations in time and space along the maturation ponds of the wastewater treatment plant of Ucubamba (Cuenca, Ecuador), according to physical, chemical and biological parameters, and meteorological conditions. A statistical approach with mixed effects models was used for testing the influence of the different variables through space and time, on dissolved oxygen concentrations. Depth was the most significant factor affecting dissolved oxygen. Phosphorous in the maturation ponds, depending on the hour of the day, presented an effect on dissolved oxygen concentrations. pH, on the other hand, only showed significance in one of the two ponds analyzed. Further, chlorophyll a, as a proxy for algal biomass concentration, had a positive correlation with dissolved oxygen following similar trends with higher concentrations closer to the surface. Meteorological factors did not show any significant effect on dissolved oxygen.
Seismic vulnerability analysis of a two-story family dwelling in confined masonry in Cuenca, Ecuador
(2017) García Erazo, Hernán Alfredo; Degrande, Geert
This paper presents a seismic vulnerability assessment of a single-family dwelling in confined masonry, a common construction type in the city of Cuenca, Ecuador. The macroscopic properties of hollow and solid brick masonry are derived from mesoscopic finite element analyses of masonry piers. The structure is modeled using an equivalent frame method, in which masonry walls are defined as piers or spandrels using a macro-element model; reinforced columns and beams and orthotropic floor slabs are also included. Several models, considering a deterministic geometry and stochastic properties of masonry, are analyzed using a quasi-static pushover method. The results of these analyses are used to define a single equivalent macro-element that incorporates in-plane shear and flexural failure modes and is capable of reproducing the cyclic behavior of the 3D model. Non-linear dynamic time history analyses are finally performed on the single equivalent macro-element for different earthquake ground motions that are selected from the PEER Ground Motion Database and that are compatible with the Ecuadorian design spectrum for several PGA levels. The maximum response is compared with different performance levels and the fragility curves are determined using a maximum likelihood analysis. The proposed methodology can be used for seismic vulnerability analysis when few data are available, but is subject to high levels of uncertainty, so further analysis and experiments on materials and structural components are needed.
Programas de intervención nutricional y de actividad física en preescolares en Latinoamérica: revisión bibliográfica
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2017) Abril Ulloa, Ana Victoria; Morales Avilez, Diana Elizabeth; Orellana Paucar, Adriana Monserrath; Yamunaqué, Soraya; Palacios Santana, Gicela; Chilet, Elisa; Huiracocha Tutivén, María de Lourdes; Monsalve, Daniela; Sempértegui León, Silvia Rocío
The material presented in this paper consists of a literature review about educative interventions promoting healthy habits in preschoolers in Latin-America. Due to changes in food patterns as a consequence of various factors such as migration, globalization, technology development, urbanization and socioeconomic status, underwent the traditional diets of this region drastic nutritional changes with an increased number of processed foods high in sugar and saturated fat. This transition coupled with a low prevalence of physical activity led to an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among the different age groups including preschoolers. In fact, obesity has become a pandemic phenomenon not only in Latin American but worldwide. As a consequence, the increase in the prevalence of Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) is a health problem that requires special and urgent attention within the Health System. Therefore, educational interventions for healthy eating and physical activity are important and necessary for different age groups, especially for preschoolers since that knowledge and habits acquired at this age will probably remain during adulthood.

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