Browsing by Author "Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio"

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Análisis de concentración de la oferta de seguros en el Ecuador periodo 2005-2009
(2010) Morocho Morocho, Jorge Luis; Tuba Criollo, Nube Lorena; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
Análisis de la estructura temporal de las tasas de interés como predictor de la producción real en el ecuador para el periodo 2000- 2013
(2014) Sánchez Gutama, Boris Efrain; Vázquez Espinoza, Jose Manuel; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
This paper examinesthe predictive capacity oftheTerm StructureofInterest RatesonReal ProductioninEcuadorwithin periodofdollarization.Most of the papers made indeveloped countries have found thatthe yield curve from term structureis a goodpredictorof the growth offuture economic activity. So, we estimate an econometric model by the Error Correction Method (ECM), finding that Ecuadorian case the spread of interest rate does not contain yet a predictive information about real growth output, these results could mainly be due to the lack of development of the domestic financial market which leads to a lack of financial-culture of the economic agents, and minimal variability of interest rates ensuing the recent years. Consequently, we may find that in Ecuador the economic agents are pending in the evolution of the real interest rate to model their behaviors, which confirms that the real interest rate is most suitable to predict future changes in production.
Análisis del impacto de la deúda externa sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) en el Ecuador, período 1970-2010
(2012) Cuesta Bueno, Patricio Alexander; Duta Uyaguary, Edison Mauricio; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
Análisis del impacto del gasto público sobre la inflación en la economía ecuatoriana en el período 2000-2012
(2015) Tipán Barros, Boris Genaro; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
The current paper analyzes inflation under a macroeconomic approach of the Keynesian School; this approach is the closest to the internal reality of our country during the post dollarization period. It also applies an econometric model based on the technique of Autoregressive Vectors, which will help us to determine the causal relation between the increase of public expense of the last years and the variations of price levels for the same period; also the determining factors of inflation in Ecuador will be determined. This project follows the directions of previous studies about this topic: the main guide and base of the research work performed by the Central Bank of Ecuador under the responsibility of Gatchet, Maldonado and Perez (2008) “Determining Factors of Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Ecuadorian Case”, some other similar research papers add to this economic theory. With this, 17 variables have been identified; from them 7 have been selected as explicative variables, including late inflation; this selection was done through test and previous estimations. After analyzing the results, we discovered that the most relevant variable is the level of prices in the post dollarization period is the Real Exchange Rate and even though the increase of Public Expenses is directly related with the increase of general prices level, this variable is not the most influent.
Asimetrías de la Ley de Okun para América Latina. 1980-2016
(2018) Vásquez Corral, David Bernardo; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
This article considers the asymmetry of Okun's Law for Latin America, for which ten countries in South America were sampled as well as Mexico, Panama and El Salvador, since these countries are representative due to the first having a high level of economic development, the second due to its growth over the past decade and in the case of El Salvador because it is a "dollarized" economy, as is the Ecuadorian case. In this research, two econometric time series models were applied; first, Short-Term Model differences, and secondly, the GAP Long-Term model; for their development annual statistics data collected by the World Bank and the International Labor Organization (ILO) were used. The results of this study demonstrate that at first instance in the differences model there is a negative or inverse relationship between the difference of gross domestic product, except chile and el salvador. The difference in the level of unemployment, which should be interpreted to mean that, by increasing the difference of one of the two factors, be it unemployment or GDP, it will impact indirectly on another indicator respectively. Then the GAP Long -Term model was applied and it was observed that in most of the countries studied there is a balance in the variables used, thus fulfilling the macro-econometric conditions applied. Elasticities found in the model show that the relationship is negative, which validates the Okun theory. It was observed that the elasticities of some countrys are bigger than the rest, so in the course of the article it will be evident.
El ciclo político del Ecuador, período 1980-2010
(2012) Calderón Villavicencio, Adrián Mauricio; Usca Cuzco, Iván Vinicio; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
Crecimiento económico con restricción en balanza de pagos: un enfoque a la ley de thirlwall aplicado en el caso de Ecuador 1993.I-2008.III
(2009) Coronel Quezada, Cristian Orlando; De la Cruz Yamunaqué, Ricardo César; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
Determinantes del spread financiero del sector cooperativo de ahorro y crédito ecuatoriano
(2016) Merchán Muñoz, Oswaldo Patricio; Tola Maldonado, Jorge Iván; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
This research analyzes the determinants of the Ecuadorian union credit sector spread. The theoretical base corresponds to the model set out by Ho and Saunders (1981). Micro and Macroeconomic variables were constructed to measure the effects they have on the intermediation margin. Monthly panel data was used for the period 2007- 2014. The estimation was made by panel corrected standard errors methodology. The results show that union credit spread depends particularly on credit risk level, efficiency in operational costs and public external debt of the economy. In addition, concentration market, liquidity levels and uncertainty on international markets have a small influence on the spread.
Elaboración de un plan estratégico aplicado a la Academia de Música Fronteras Musicales Abiertas (FROM-A) para el período 2013-2018
(2013) Guamán Guzmán, Juan Carlos; Vergara Saula, Angel Oswaldo; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
The present paper aims to develop pan Strategic Plan on the music academy “Fronteras Musicales Abiertas” (FROM-A), since this one doesn’t have a formal planning of its activities, which have produced a decrease of students in the last school periods, which has generated economic losses. The Strategic Planning was created based on the current situation of the academy, as well as the different activities and goals of the academy, voiced by their managers, thus allowing design the strategic analysis which is the formulation of the academy’s vision and mission, as FROM-A didn’t have them when we began our work, conducting external and internal audits to identify the opportunities, threats, strengths and weaknesses which allow us to make a formulation of strategies to develop the action plans, that will take us to achieve our objectives. The results of the external and internal audits, puts the academy in an acceptable position into Cuenca market, since the quantified results of the different charts places the academy into acceptable parameters, however the fact that academy doesn’t have an established strategic planning, produces that their growth on market stops. Considering the obtained data, we proceed to create strategies based on the opportunities and threat, strength and weaknesses of the academy, which must be implemented in a quick and efficiently way by the managers to achieve the proposed objectives of this work.
La elasticidad impositiva en el Ecuador, un estudio para el período 2000-2015
(2017) Aguaysa Reinoso, Lourdes Abigail; Cevallos Larrea, Daniel Esteban; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
The present article has as main objective to estimate the tax elasticity of value added tax (VAT) and the income tax (IT) both short and long term in the Ecuador, estimates is made for the period between the first quarter of 2000 to fourth quarter of 2015. The tax elasticity reflects the impact of the gross domestic products tax revenues, for the analysis of long-terms make use of Cointegration models, while the mechanism of correcting errors, uses data provided by the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) to analyze the short term. The results of the investigation demonstrate a positive long-term relationship and a negative relationship of short-term between tax revenues and gross domestic product for the Ecuadorian economy.
Estimación de la tasa de interés real neutral para la economía ecuatoriana: 2000-2012
(2013) Aucapiña Maza, Bertha Gabriela; Sibri Siguencia, Juan Patricio; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
The Neutral Real Interest Rate(NRIR) is a consistent interest with the same product to its potential level and stable inflation. For this reason NRIR is considered fundamental to the conduct of monetary policy instrument. In the last decade there have been several efforts to estimate it through the application of economic models and reflect the unobservable characteristic and dynamics of the NRIR. This work use a semi structural model of unobservable components for calculation of the neutral interest rate, using the algorithm of Kalman Filter and Function of Maximum Likelihood, the same is adapted to the conditions of the Ecuadorian economy between 2000 and 2012. The estimated NRIR show a cycle during the initial period of dollarization containing a short climb until 2002 with a peak value of 8.50% and a decrease during 2003 to 2006 with an average of 7.36%, since 2007 it shows a relatively stable behavior in 5.20% on average. This valuation is nearby to the results found in neighboring economies.
Estimación econométrica de la demanda laboral y la tasa natural de desempleo para las ciudades de Quito, Guayaquil y Cuenca, durante el período 1998-2009
(2010) Argudo Piedra, Mayra; Juca Faicán, Sandra Patricia; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
Estudio de la brecha salarial entre hombres y mujeres en el área urbana de la ciudad de Cuenca, durante el año 2010
(2012) Cárdenas Peláez, María Fernanda; Plaza Uguña, Norma Alexandra; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
Evaluación de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en el Ecuador, periodo 2000-2014
(2016) Quituisaca Sumba, Claudio Rogelio; Yanza Lucero, Angel Ariosto; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
This paper examines the sustainability of public debt of Ecuador’s post dollarization period. Most studies that have addressed this issue used as methodology test the seasonal in the ratio debt/GDP, and it has been shown that in the case of Ecuador, debt was on a path of sustainability. However, after several years of maintaining an economic model focused on public spending, is necessary a more rigorous assessment of sustainability which cointegration contrasts between income and expenditure using an Error Correction Method (ECM), whereupon it was found that the public debt in the period 2000 to 2014 is sustainable, but in a weak sense in the absence of cointegration. This result is due to the Ecuador's main source of financing is the sale of oil, whose prices experienced significant declines that aggravated the fiscal deficit, because the public spending is not be reduced to accordingly. This implies that the implementation of a fiscal rule is needed to improve risk indicators and the state be able to access to financial markets in better conditions.
Evaluación económica-financiera del proyecto de agua potable para la ciudad de Biblián y su probable incidencia en el desarrollo de la ciudad
(1995) Reinoso Avecillas, Miriam; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio; Paredes Roldán, Enrique
Midiendo la calidad del empleo: una aplicación para Ecuador en el periodo de 2007 a 2017
(2020) Orellana Bravo, Mercy Raquel; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio; Beltrán Romero, Pablo Aníbal; Ontaneda Jiménez, Diego Danny
The document investigates the evolution of the quality of employment in Ecuador in the years 2007-2017. Due to the multidimensional nature of job quality, three types of composite indicators are constructed. First, a composite index is constructed with two types of dimension weights; one that weights each dimension in the same way, and another that gives greater weight to the remuneration dimension. Second, recognizing that each labor market has particularities and that the weighting of the dimensions that represent the quality of employment is not the same for each country, a Polychoric Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied. Additionally, the employment quality indicator is calculated for different sectors of economic activity. The results indicate that there is an improvement in the employment quality indicator in 2017 in relation to the level observed in 2007, what mainly responds to the higher levels of job stability and social security coverage that workers experienced during the study period. However, the percentage of people with job insecurity is still quite significant, in the same way that there are marked differences in the level of quality of employment between the different sectors of economic activity considered in the study. The services sectors present the best indicator, while the agriculture, livestock and fishing, and construction sectors register the worst indicator.
Shocks exógenos y crisis en América Latina: una propuesta de indicador de vulnerabilidad
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2021-07-15) Fernández Guamán, Edwin Marcelo; Chacón Pintado, Shakyra Mishel; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
This research develops an economic vulnerability index that provides early warning signals of a growth crisis for Latin America in cases of exogenous shocks for the period 2000 - 2018. Two complementary approaches are used to map the information of the underlying indicators in an economic vulnerability index. The first refers to the probit model that identifies the determinants of the probability of growth crisis and the second corresponds to the signaling approach with which this index is constructed. The results indicate that the main variables related to the probability of a growth crisis are: fiscal deficit, gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign direct investment (FDI); and according to the second approach, the variables that best classify between a crisis and non-crisis period are: inflation and income from the central government. It is observed that the movements of the vulnerability index agree with what happened in the region for the study period, showing high levels of vulnerability in 2008 and 2015.
Utilización de Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) como alternativa para el pronóstico del Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) y contraste de resultados con modelos estadísticos tradicionales (ARIMA y VAR) para el Ecuador periodo 2000-2017
(2018) Mora Saavedra, Anthony Daniel; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
In the present investigation the quality of forecast offered by three different models is evaluated. Two of them of traditional use in economic sciences (model ARIMA and VAR) and a model of artificial neural networks (ANN) for the series of the consumer price index (CPI) of Ecuador for the period 2000-2017. The models that offer the best results within each family are the SARIMA model (1,1,1), VAR model with a single lag and the ANN model with 1 hidden layer, 8 hidden neurons and linear activation function in each layer. As the main findings, it is highlighted the great prognosis efficiency that the SARIMA model (1,1,1) has, both for the short and medium term. It is also important to highlight the contribution that the ANN model makes to the quality of multivariate prognosis when used together with the VAR model, improving the root mean quadratic error. To analyze the prognosis quality of the different models, in addition to the traditional statistical indicators (mean quadratic error and its root, mean percentage error, average absolute percentage error and its deviation and Theil U1) a recurrent prognostication is also made. This prognostication shows that all the models which the prognosis has been made with are stable
Valoración económica del bien ambiental: calidad del aire en la ciudad de Cuenca, 2010
(2010) Cango Puchaicela, Pedro Alberto; Carchipulla Zhunio, Noé Alberto; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
Valoración económica generada por la restauración del ferrocarril y sus iconos turísticos en el cantón el Tambo (2009-2013
(2015) Castillo Paucar, Anyela Noemi; Mora Verdugo, Johanna Paola; Rivera Bautista, Carlos Julio
The proposed research is framed in the study of economic valuation generated by the restoration of the railway and its tourist icons in the canton El Tambo, in order to determine: what are the direct beneficiaries of these works carried out, which has improved from are the implementation of the tourism project, which has generated impact and that allowed the valuation method applied to housing as a special case study with hedonic price. Consecutively the analysis in the area (survey) has verified that the effects of the restoration of the railway works are summarized in: improving the city by the quality of buildings; increase in housing prices; increase in business; raising the self-esteem of the population; growth of domestic and foreign tourism and projection of the Inn at national and international levels; plus the present investigation established the rising price of housing, in which valuation method was applied hedonic prices, identifying which assets are comprised of two components: permanent (land); and transient (buildings); that make up the physical unit of real property which is the subject transaction in a contract of sale. The value of these goods in the local market, are expressed by housing characteristics including the proximity to the area of restoration and rehabilitation of the railway works, which form part of the development of the city.