Browsing by Author "Alvarado Tapia, Jonathan Antonio"

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Evaluación del riesgo asociado a la volatilidad de los precios medios de compra de energía, impacto sobre los resultados financieros y modelo de proyección de corto y mediano plazo, aplicado al caso de la Empresa Eléctrica Regional Centro Sur C.A. – CENTROSUR
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2025-07-07) Criollo Nieves, Jéssica Carolina; Alvarado Tapia, Jonathan Antonio
This study evaluates the impact of the volatility of average energy purchase prices on the financial results of CENTROSUR, a distribution company in Ecuador's electricity sector. A historical analysis of the variability of the components of the Total Energy Cost (CTE) during the 2019–2023 period was carried out, identifying a significant increase in volatility in 2024, driven by prolonged droughts and higher import costs. Through the application of a Monte Carlo simulation model and comparison with the company's real accounting results, the effect of these fluctuations on profitability margins was quantified, showing a progressive deterioration of the operating result. As part of the research, a strategic action plan was developed, which includes the integration of climatic variables into projection models, adjustment of simulation distributions to capture extreme events, and the creation of financial contingency reserves. The study concludes that incorporating more robust risk analysis methodologies is essential to improve financial decision-making and strengthen CENTROSUR’s resilience to increasing uncertainty in the electricity market.
Propuesta de gestión del riesgo de crédito en una cooperativa del segmento 2 de la ciudad de Cuenca
(Universidad de Cuenca, 2025-06-24) Zhinin Ludizaca, Ana Paola; Alvarado Tapia, Jonathan Antonio
This thesis approaches the problem of the increase in overdue loans in Ecuador's savings and credit cooperatives, focusing on an institution in Cuenca's segment 2. This segment has an average default rate of 7.37% according to 2025 data. The study proposes a comprehensive credit risk management model that combines quantitative and qualitative tools, aligned with the regulations of the Superintendency of the Popular and Solidarity Economy and the international standards of the Basel Committee. The diagnosis identifies weaknesses such as subjectivity in credit assessment, a focus on consumer loans, and a lack of monitoring of repayment capacity. The solution is structured around three pillars: regulatory analysis, evaluation of current practices, and the proposal of policies and procedures to optimize credit risk management, including indicators such as the percentage of repayment capacity analysis, loan approval rates, financial education, average recovery time, among others. The expected impacts are improved portfolio quality, a progressive reduction in default rate, and a strengthening of financial sustainability. The study highlights that proactive management, based on updated data and regulations, is key to protecting member resources and ensuring the viability of these institutions. Successful implementation will require institutional commitment to training, technological updating, and policy compliance, strengthening confidence in the cooperative system and its role in financial inclusion, especially in rural areas and excluded sectors from traditional banking.
Propuesta de modelo de gestión de efectivo para la Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Jardín Azuayo
(2016-03-07) Alvarado Tapia, Jonathan Antonio; Orellana Osorio, Iván Felipe
The lack of technical tools designed to optimize cash management makes inadequate the allocation of monetary resources to counters and ATMs. This causes both the inefficient use of cash as well as the costs associated with administration increase. For this reason, the Coop Jardín Azuayo seeks adapt the setting of quotas to their counters and ATMs through the development of a cash management model that integrates additionally effective policies to ensure their implementation and subsequent evaluation. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a cash management model proposal underpinned by software that optimizes the monetary resources through proper management of liquidity by each agency and ATMs maintained by the institution. Thus, this work degree is based on a correlational descriptive applied research. When the validation of the model was performed it could be found that the methodologies used for its construction adequately conform to the reality of each agency and ATM. It demonstrates the feasibility of using the proposal. At the final, this information is reflected in policies, strategies and action plans which will always keep synergy with the organizational vision of participatory and inclusive management based on quality, closeness and service.