Evaluación de la precipitación mensual en el Ecuador según los modelos globales de clima del CMIP5 y de modelos regionales de clima de alta resolución

Abstract

The change in precipitation patterns affects society economically and environmentally. For that reason, having rainfall projections will allow better planning for water use and thus avoid damages caused by droughts and floods. The present thesis is oriented to evaluate in Ecuador in the present, the precipitation generated by three global climate models of the IPCC AR5 and their respective dynamically downscale results by means of a regional climate model (WRF). Several statistical metrics were evaluated, e.i, correlation, root mean square error RMSE and standard deviation to characterize the performance in the Ecuadorian region. The interpretation of the results showed that the global and regional models have low representatives in eastern zones and in valleys of the inter-Andean valley. Models downscaled results showed relative superiority in all metrics used, but where are most reliable is on the coast and the western part of the Western Cordillera. In conclusion, the global models evaluated do not allow having an adequate representation of precipitation given the climatic and orographic variability of Ecuador. On the other hand, the results of regional modeling increase the quality of the data but in the same areas that the global models present an adequate resolution. A larger scale reduction, increase the monitoring with comparable series of precipitation and analysis by climatic regions, would help us to better understand the behavior of rain in the regions of the Sierra and the Orient where the representativeness of the expected climate.