Modelo de simulación dinámica para evaluar el abastecimiento de agua potable en una red de distribución en la ciudad de Azogues

Abstract

The drinking water supply system of Bayas parish presents deficiencies associated with population growth, aging infrastructure, losses in the distribution network, and climate variability factors that compromise the continuity and sustainability of the service. The objective of this study was to develop a dynamic simulation model to evaluate system performance and support water planning for the Bayas Drinking Water Board. The research adopted a quantitative and systemic approach using system dynamics methodology. Critical variables were identified and classified into levels, flows, and auxiliary variables, organized within the components of supply, demand, infrastructure, management, and environmental factors. A causal diagram was developed to represent cause–effect relationships and feedback loops. Subsequently, a stock-and-flow (Forrester) model was constructed, mathematically formulating the water balance and population dynamics, and implemented in VENSIM using historical data and technical parameters provided by the Board. Simulations projected to 2050 reveal a growing risk of deficit, mainly driven by population increase and leakage losses. Storage capacity and treatment efficiency act as regulatory mechanisms for supply stability. The system shows high sensitivity to variations in water availability, increasing its vulnerability under scenarios of reduced precipitation. The model identified critical intervention points, particularly in loss reduction and infrastructure expansion planning, consolidating dynamic simulation as a strategic tool for decisión making and long-term service sustainability.