Validación del índice pronóstico de Mannheim en pacientes con peritonitis secundaria en el Hospital Regional Vicente Corral Moscoso y Hospital José Carrasco Arteaga IESS, Cuenca 2009-2010

Abstract

Objective. To validate MANNHEIM Forecast Index (GPI) in patients with secondary peritonitis, hospitals "Vicente Corral Moscoso and José Carrasco Arteaga" IESS Basin, and its relationship to mortality, complications, need for intensive care unit (ICU) and prolonged hospitalization.

Methods. We performed an observational study to test validation, in this case, the IPM. Between March 2009 and May 2010 test was applied in 131 patients with secondary peritonitis admitted to the hospitals listed, we investigated the ability of the test to predict mortality, complications, prolonged hospitalization and need for ICU. For analysis, the values of sensitivity (S), specificity (E) index Yauden (IJ), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative (NPV) and positive likelihood ratio (LR +) and negative (LR-).

Results. Mortality was 8.4%, to validate the test to predict mortality, with 26 or more points, we obtained a S = 72.73%, E = 85.83%, PPV = 32%, NPV = 97.17 , IJ = 0.59, LR + = 5.13, and RV-0, 32, mortality was lower in the patient group cn IPM <26 (2.83%) to 32% of its IPM> 26. Regarding the possibility of complications and prolonged hospitalization Test not found to be an appropriate way, but if they allow values to predict the need for admission to intensive care.

Conclusion. Applying Mainnheim Prognostic Index for patients with secondary peritonitis, we note that a score equal to or higher than 26 predicts a high probability of death and need for intensive care.

Keywords: Prognostic Index Mainnheim, secondary peritonitis, mortality, severity of illness index