Análisis de la colocación de la cartera de consumo en las instituciones bancarias privadas de la ciudad de Cuenca: riesgo de crédito y requerimiento de provisiones. Período 2019-2023

Abstract

Between 2019 and 2023, private banks in the city of Cuenca have experienced a significant increase in the share of consumer-loans portfolio , which are primarily allocated to personal use activities. This growth, although positive in terms of credit expansion, has been accompanied by a rise in delinquency rate, leading to difficulties in borrowers' ability to repay. This study explores how delinquency is related, either inversely or directly, to various independent variables through a multiple linear regression model. Additionally, it conducts a seasonal analysis of consumer loan placements in the private banking sector in relation to delinquency. The results highlight the significance of the private sector unemployment growth rate, the growth rate of average private income, and the average effective active interest rate, while underscoring the importance of financial relief as a key strategy to mitigate credit risk and prevent an increase in bad debts.