Developing an integrated index analyzing the water-energy-food-ecosystem services nexus in an Equatorial Andean basin

Abstract

The sustainable management of water, energy, food, and ecosystem services is essential to ensuring resource security in the context of climate change and population growth. This study analyzes the interrelationship of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Services (WEF-ES) Nexus in the Machángara River sub-basin in Ecuador by developing an integrated index based on structural equation modeling. Data from 2015 to 2018 were collected, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce the dimensionality of the indicators. Subsequently, a Structural Equation Model (SEM) was used to validate the relationship between the Nexus factors. The results reveal that water is the central element in system stability, influencing agricultural production, hydropower generation, and ecosystem regulation. Based on a categorization using percentiles, the integrated index assesses the stability of the WEF-ES Nexus across five levels: Critical (≤10), Low (≤20), Medium (30–70), High (≥80), and Optimal (≥90). The developed methodology is valuable for integrated resource management and sustainable policy development in the Equatorial Andean River basins. These findings provide critical insights for guiding evidence-based public policies aimed at enhancing resilience and resource governance in Andean territories.