Análisis de la recaudación fiscal del Ecuador mediante la curva de Laffer período 2015-2021

Abstract

Tax revenues are an essential source to sustain the economy of Ecuador, which is why adequate policies and tax decisions are required for social welfare. During the years of study, the country has presented various economic, political and social scenarios such as the rise and fall of oil barrel prices, the earthquake that occurred in 2016, the start of a global pandemic at the end of 2019 and two changes of governments of the country, obtaining a very varied scheme. The Laffer curve is a model and tool that allows analyzing the optimal rate for collection, taking as a reference the main taxes of the country such as the progressive tax, this being the Income Tax and the regressive tax, this being the Value Added Tax, For the estimation of the optimal rate, the OLS Ordinary Least Squares model is used with quarterly data on VAT, IR, GDP, CPI and IPI in the period 2015 - 2021 and control variables that can be included in the model with the objective of achieve a better explanation such as Tax Efficiency and Fiscal Effort.