Participación electoral en escenarios de crisis. El caso de Ecuador durante las elecciones generales de 2021

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of electoral participation in Ecuador in the General Elections of 2021, for the two hundred and twenty-one cantons and in a scenario of health, economic and social crisis due to Covid 19; for this purpose, a quantitative methodology using a probit model is used to study the impact of economic, political and social conditions based on theories that study electoral participation and behavior, also incorporating the number of deaths due to Covid, as a variable that explains the impact of the pandemic. For this purpose, a series of econometric tests are developed that allow us to test the hypotheses of mobilization, modernization and electoral competition; the results allow us to conclude that factors that measure the economic environment and the impact of the pandemic had an impact on the percentages of electoral participation, considered by recognized scholars as an essential element to measure the quality of democracy. Finally, and after proving the significance of the mobilizing hypothesis, especially for cantons such as Quito and Guayaquil, the "democratic resilience" is corroborated, on the one hand, of the electoral body and, on the other hand, of the Ecuadorian voters who went to vote. Likewise, it is observed that the electoral competition does not represent a mobilizing element before the exercise of the vote.