Clasificación y predicción del estrés financiero de las empresas del sector manufacturero del Ecuador

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to classify and determine the financial stress of companies in the manufacturing sector of Ecuador in the 2014-2018 period. For this purpose, multivariate methods were used: multiple discriminant analysis and logistic regression, which were first used by Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980) respectively for the prediction of bankruptcy of companies in the American context. A sample of 833 companies (4165 observations) was used, however, and due to data management reasons the information of the different companies in the different years was taken by observation and not by company. The results show that the logistic regression model has a greater predictive capacity than the discriminant analysis model. It is worth mentioning that the year in which the greatest financial stress was observed in the manufacturing sector was 2016; At the same time, microenterprises presented the greatest financial stress, which are mainly located in Pichincha, Guayas, Azuay and Manabí