Evaluación de los efectos de la disponibilidad del agua en la generación de energía hidroeléctrica bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Caso de estudio en el complejo hidroeléctrico Paute

Abstract

Climate change is currently a problem that is becoming more and more noticeable, this phenomenon is responsible for the extreme events of recent years (floods and droughts), causing severe impacts on urban, agricultural, hydropower sectors, among others. In this sense, hydrometeorological modeling and the use of climate scenarios have become one of the best alternatives to make projections regarding the behavior of these variables (flow, precipitation, temperature, among others). The hydroelectric sector is particularly affected by these climatic extremes, harming Ecuador's main source of renewable energy. The production of hydroelectric energy in the country is around 90% of the total energy in Ecuador, so an alteration in the flows that feed the generation plants would affect this production and therefore all productive activities. The present study used climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) to analyze the behavior of the Paute river flow in the period 2011-2050 at the Paute AJ Dudas station, which is the closest to the Mazar reservoir belonging to the complex. Hydroelectric Paute Integral. For this analysis, the flow of the Paute AJ Dudas station was modeled using multiple regression models. The results show that in the future the flow will increase in the coming years, however these differences are not as noticeable until the 2050 period, a period in which the difference between both scenarios is not significant. It is estimated that in the coming years there will be an alteration in the flow that could harm hydroelectric production, with the consequent affectation of the population and the economy of the country. In addition, it was found that evapotranspiration did not turn out to be an optimal controller for the flow forecast in the study area. This study would serve as the basis for the management of operations in the Mazar reservoir.