Análisis de modelos del CMIP5 y de índices climáticos extremos en regiones continentales del Ecuador para los escenarios RCP 4.5 y RCP 8.5

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events in Ecuador cause economic losses in several sectors of the population and even loss of human lives. In a context of climate change, understanding the evolution of extreme climate events in the future is indispensable to strengthen adaptation policies and actions aimed at mitigating these effects. The aim of this study was to analyze the behavior of historical precipitation (1981-2005) and changes in future projections over two periods (2016-2040, 2041-2065), for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. To do this, the experiments of two climate models, Eta and assembly WRF, were used to correct the bias. The performance of the models was evaluated through 3 statistical metrics: determination coefficient (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results showed that the best-performing model was the WRF assembly and the most suitable method of bias correction was Delta. In the analysis of historical precipitation, the Amazonia presented the most intense precipitation events with a higher duration and frequency of occurrence. For the future scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the periods 2016-2040 and 2041-2065, all evaluated indices indicated an increase in precipitation for the 3 regions of Ecuador, highlighting a greater change in the Ecuadorian Sierra in the second future period, where a significant increase is forecast in days of very intense precipitation. This analysis allows us to understand how the dynamics of precipitation will be in the future, and how its change will affect various aspects of daily life and resource management in the country.