Estrés financiero en el sector manufacturero del Ecuador

Abstract

This study analyzes financial stress in Ecuador’s manufacturing sector during the 2012–2023 period, proposing an integrated approach that combines the construction of a Financial Stress Index (FSI) using dynamic factor models and the estimation of a logistic regression model to identify its key determinants. The FSI aggregates financial and macroeconomic indicators to classify firms annually as stressed or non-stressed. Contextual variables such as manufacturing GDP growth, SME lending interest rates, real effective exchange rate, inflation, and a COVID-19 dummy variable are included to capture systemic shocks. Results show a cyclical pattern in financial stress, with a significant peak in 2020 due to the pandemic, followed by a partial recovery. The logistic model confirms the statistical relevance of macroeconomic conditions in explaining financial distress, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability to external shocks in a dollarized economy. Model performance metrics (AUC = 0.8533, KS = 0.5751, Accuracy = 81.7%) indicate strong predictive power, validating the methodological approach as an effective tool for forward-looking financial risk monitoring. This research contributes to the development of early warning mechanisms for financial fragility and highlights the importance of targeted industrial policies and structural resilience strategies in supporting manufacturing firms within emerging dollarized economies like Ecuador. By integrating firmlevel and macroeconomic dimensions, the study offers valuable insights for policy formulation and private sector decision-making, particularly in contexts where access to credit and external shocks play a critical role in financial sustainability.