Estimación del impacto del cambio climático en la calidad del agua para la cuenca del río Tomebamba en Monay

Abstract

This thesis has been developed for the purpose to extend the hydrological knowledge concerning to the study of water quality considering climate change impacts with in tropical Andean basins. This was possible through the development of a water quality submodel obtained by data mining to relate water quailty paremeters versus hidro-meterological parameters. A database of 27 days was used to obtain a submodel in the Weka software. This database consists of seven physicochemical parameters (BOD, COD, DO, CT, SST, nitrates and nitrites) and 4 hydro-meteorological variables (flow, precipitation, temperature and ETo) daily observed. The resulting ecuations were able to model successfully the load (kg / day) of physicochemical parameters in relation with the hydro meteorological variablesat the Tomebamba in Monay basin. Subsequently, the results of Weka were incorporated with the results of climate models and theresults of the VHM model, obtaining predictions of the 7 parameters of water quality for the years 2045 to 2065 for the climate change scenario A1B of Special Report of the IPCC scenarios emissions. The research achievement meet the objectives set, showing that for future years a reduction in water quality, where an increase of 9409 kg / day BOD increase, 357,599 kg / day of COD, 18045 kg / day OD and 619 Kg / day of nitrate is projected; while in the drought events pollutant load reductions are presented, the most significant lowering of -2.20E + 05 kg / day of SST and -63988.9 kg / day BOD.