Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad y riesgo climático de la población ante la posible afectación del cultivo de maíz frente a amenazas derivadas de cambios en el clima en la subcuenca del río Machángara

Abstract

Climate change is a global issue that has no political borders due to compounding effects that occur in ecosystems around the world. For this reason, countless studies on climate change have recently been carried out around the world and projections or scenarios have been developed to estimate how the climate will behave in the future. Currently, the goal is to understand and describe how these changes in the climate will impact society, different production systems and the environment; the aim of which are to propose solutions or alternatives that make it possible to face future problems related to health, economy, culture, life quality and food security. These take into consideration that changes in climate will have a direct and indirect influence on food production in quantity and quality. For this study, a methodology based on the one developed by FAO for the agricultural sector was applied, in accordance with the guidelines for analysis of vulnerability and climate risk of the Fifth Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). First, the threats derived from the climate that influence the study area were identified. Then, the exposure and the sensitivity of the corn crop to those threats and the sensitivity of the population to suffer impacts from the damages or losses that could arise for this crop were determined. Finally, the adaptive capacity of the population against these impacts was defined, to calculate the vulnerability and obtain an objective risk assessment. Thereby, it was determined that the vulnerability of the population is low to certain threats and is very low to others. It was also defined that the climatic risk for the population is very low to all threats. This work culminates with the proposal of some recommendations for the development of future related research and to reduce vulnerability to the threats derived from climate change, which could affect this and other crops in the future.