Desarrollo de índices de vulnerabilidad de los usuarios del agua de la subcuenca del río Machángara, afectados por el cambio climático

Abstract

Machangara River sub-basin is of vital importance for current and future development of Cuenca population due to its water supply capacity for hydroelectric generation, consumption (Tixan drinking water treatment plant), and as a source of agricultural irrigation. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the vulnerability that users of the sub-basin will present in the face of possible extreme events due to climate change. The aim of this study was to determine vulnerability indexes for each of the users present in the sub-basin within the RCP 45 and 85 scenarios. In order to obtain such indexes, it was necessary the future projection of variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity and wind; which were obtained from large-scale climatological models. Thus, seeing the need to apply a statistical downscaling, the final results were used as input data for the hydrological model; which generated the supply and future demand. From the result of this model, synthetic series were generated. It allowed to obtain 100 possible future scenarios where supply and demand were crossed. Final results obtained indicated that in most scenarios for each user, the vulnerability varies between low and very low. However, the vulnerability increases for the months of July, August and September. These results can help users of the sub-basin to make decisions, allowing them to adapt to possible future problems caused by climate change.