Caracterización de umbrales de propagación de la sequía hidrológica en respuesta a la sequía meteorológica para el Río Yanuncay

Abstract

This study investigates the intricated interrelationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the Yanuncay river basin, using advanced copula function models and Bayesian networks. The main objective is to identify and quantify the critical thresholds that trigger the transition from meteorological to hydrological drought, considering different temporal and spatial scales. The results reveal a high sensitivity of hydrological drought to meteorological conditions, particularly on short time scales. Specific thresholds have been established that vary with temporality, reflecting the ability of the basin to buffer the effects of variability in daily precipitation. Accurate identification of these thresholds is crucial for the development of effective water management and water resource planning strategies, allowing for more effective anticipation and mitigation of drought impacts. Based on these findings, the implementation of early warning systems and adaptive management strategies that consider rapidly evolving drought conditions is recommended. In addition, more extensive longitudinal studies are suggested to capture greater climate variability and more severe drought events, allowing for a deeper understanding of drought dynamics in the region.