Browsing by Author "Valdivieso García, Katy Viviana"

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    Análisis de la precipitación mediante la evaluación de índices climáticos extremos en el territorio ecuatoriano continental
    (Universidad de Cuenca, 2022-05-26) Saritama Chérrez, Hugo Giordano; Valdivieso García, Katy Viviana; Avilés Añazco, Alex Manuel; Contreras Silva, Juan José
    Today, climate change is one of the main environmental threats affecting the world. The consequences of constant meteorological variations can become catastrophic, an example the increase in extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, due to the variability of precipitation; hence the importance of studying climate trends. The present study analyzed the extreme climate events of precipitation at the spatio-temporal level in continental Ecuador for the historical period 1980-2015 and future 2016-2070 under the projections RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the evaluation of 11 extreme climate indices proposed by the Expert Group on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). For this purpose, daily precipitation data from 41 stations subject to rigorous quality control intended for a training set to improve the spatio-temporal representation using the RF-MEP methodology that combines ground data and satellite images by means of random forests. On the other hand, for the use of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 a statistical downscaling was performed using the quantile delta mapping (QMD) method. Consequently, extreme precipitation indices were calculated using the RClimdex package, a trend analysis was performed using the Mann Kendall test and Sen's method was applied to determine their magnitude. The results and analysis of precipitation indices showed the occurrence of historical extreme events related to the El Niño phenomenon, as well as an increase in precipitation trends in future scenarios, especially in RCP8.5. This research provides a general idea of the historical changes in precipitation through the indexes, as well as the possible scenarios of future changes in the short, medium and long term, so that climate hazard analysis studies can be carried out; making it possible for decision-makers and citizens to apply measures for the control, regulation and protection of water resources.