Browsing by Author "Rodas Bustamante, Melissa Carolina"

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Análisis del comportamiento de incendios forestales en la cuenca del río Paute mediante sensores remotos
(2015) Rodas Bustamante, Melissa Carolina; Samaniego Placencia, Priscila Alexandra; Delgado Inga, Víctor Omar
Due to the increase in forest fires in Ecuador and to the great importance land cover has in the regulation of the hydrological cycles in the Paute River Basin, an analysis of the behavior of burned areas using remote sensing, was performed. For the intended purpose, ortho-photos corresponding to the year 2010-2011 were selected, as well as Landsat 8 satellite imagery for the 2013-2014 time period, with the purpose of identifying the places with the greatest presence of burned patches. Afterwards, the variables that were more significantly associated to the occurrence of forest fires were determined; these variables were: (1) the closest elevation value, (2) the distance to the closest road, (3), the distance to an intervened ecosystem, and (4) the average elevation value; nevertheless, these variables weren’t sufficient for generating a prediction model. The distance at which clustering is more intense is 20 Km, and the sites with the greatest burn density did not present similar characteristics regarding vegetation cover dominance. The minimum surface area of the burned patches identified was 21.38 Km². The most affected areas of forest and protective vegetation (ABVP) were: (1) the northern portion of Moya-Molón, (2) northeast of Guarongo, (3) southwest of Sunsun-Yanasacha, (4) Yanuncay-Irquis, (5) west of Machángara-Tomebamba, (6) northeast of Allcuquiro, and (7) north of Dudas-Mazar.
Sensibilidad del coeficiente de Manning en la estimación de los niveles de crecida para el mapeo de inundaciones en un río de la región interandina de Ecuador
(2023) Rodas Bustamante, Melissa Carolina
Input data, parameters, and the structure of mathematical models introduce uncertainty in the results; thus, sensitivity analysis is required when implementing a model or as a preliminary step. This study evaluated the sensitivity of Manning’s coefficient based on landcover types in the floodplains and the main channel, for calculating water levels and defining flood extent. The mike 11 one-dimensional [1-d] model was used in this study on a five-kilometer stretch of the Santa Barbara River in southern Ecuador. Six hundred Monte Carlo simulations were run for each flood event, and the results were used to assess the robustness of the 1-d model. This analysis revealed that Manning’s coefficient was sensitive to changes: there was a difference of up to 1.02 m between maximum and minimum water levels. The resulting flood maps, however, revealed almost imperceptible differences in flood extent. These findings demonstrate that the recommended Manning’s mean value is reliable for flood hazard mapping of Mountain Rivers in the inter-Andean region
Sensitivity analysis of manning’s coefficient on the water levels of a flood model
(2018-03-19) Rodas Bustamante, Melissa Carolina; Timbe Castro, Luis Manuel; Campozano Parra, Lenin Vladimir
The parameters and characteristics of mathematical models introduce noise. Consequently, conducting a sensitivity analysis when building models or prior to their use, is recommended. This study assessed the sensitivity of the water levels (generated by the 1D hydrodynamic MIKE-11 package) to Manning’s roughness coefficient. A 5-km reach of the Santa Barbara River in Southern Ecuador (which has a long history of flooding), and its related data, were selected to examine the sensitivity of simulated water levels to Manning’s n. A Monte Carlo approach was employed, and the results served to evaluate the robustness of the 1D hydrodynamic model. The analysis showed sensitivity to changes in Manning’s coefficient, with a difference of up to 1.02 m between the maximum and minimum water levels. Nevertheless, the results of flood mapping delineation revealed almost unnoticeable differences in the extent of flooded areas. The findings show that the average values of Manning’s n, as recommended in the literature, can be used with confidence to estimate flood hazard maps for similar mountain rivers in the Inter-Andean region