Browsing by Author "Palacios Gárate, Karina Fernanda"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2

Análisis de sensibilidad de factores que influyen en la oferta y demanda de agua en escenarios futuros. Caso de estudio en una cuenca andina regulada
(2017) Palacios Gárate, Karina Fernanda; Avilés Añazco, Alex Manuel
Population growth, economic activity and competition for water among users are causing a high demand for water resources, coupled with the low availability of water as a result of changes in land use and the climate, make predict shortage periods that will affect humans and the ecosystems health. A number of studies have been carried out on hydrology and water resources with current scenarios in andean basins, however few studies have been carried out with future scenarios and still less analyzing the integral factors of future change that could influence the supply and a water system demand of an andean basin. For this reason, the importance of this research in the analysis of the sensitivity of changing factors that may be influencing the supply and water demand in future scenarios. Through the construction of scenarios with factors variation: population and demand, climate and land use, the focus of this study was applied in the Machangara river basin located to the south of Ecuador, for which several tools and evaluation models of water resources and statistical techniques for creation to future scenarios. The results obtained show that the crossing between supply and water demand on future presents water surpluses in most scenarios, however there are months like January and August that present deficits in several scenarios. In addition, the combination of scenarios provided a better insight into the importance of each factor in the water balance of the basin's water resources system. These results could be useful for formulating water management and planning measures with the aim of translating them into concrete decision-making actions to safeguard water security for current and future generations.
Desarrollo de índices de vulnerabilidad de los usuarios del agua de la subcuenca del río Machángara, afectados por el cambio climático
(2019-07-23) Flores Maza, Washington Andrés; Galán Montero, Luciano Agustín; Avilés Añazco, Alex Manuel; Jiménez Yucta, Stalin Daniel; Palacios Gárate, Karina Fernanda
Machangara River sub-basin is of vital importance for current and future development of Cuenca population due to its water supply capacity for hydroelectric generation, consumption (Tixan drinking water treatment plant), and as a source of agricultural irrigation. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the vulnerability that users of the sub-basin will present in the face of possible extreme events due to climate change. The aim of this study was to determine vulnerability indexes for each of the users present in the sub-basin within the RCP 45 and 85 scenarios. In order to obtain such indexes, it was necessary the future projection of variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity and wind; which were obtained from large-scale climatological models. Thus, seeing the need to apply a statistical downscaling, the final results were used as input data for the hydrological model; which generated the supply and future demand. From the result of this model, synthetic series were generated. It allowed to obtain 100 possible future scenarios where supply and demand were crossed. Final results obtained indicated that in most scenarios for each user, the vulnerability varies between low and very low. However, the vulnerability increases for the months of July, August and September. These results can help users of the sub-basin to make decisions, allowing them to adapt to possible future problems caused by climate change.