Browsing by Author "Jiménez Yucta, Stalin Daniel"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2

Desarrollo de índices de vulnerabilidad de los usuarios del agua de la subcuenca del río Machángara, afectados por el cambio climático
(2019-07-23) Flores Maza, Washington Andrés; Galán Montero, Luciano Agustín; Avilés Añazco, Alex Manuel; Jiménez Yucta, Stalin Daniel; Palacios Gárate, Karina Fernanda
Machangara River sub-basin is of vital importance for current and future development of Cuenca population due to its water supply capacity for hydroelectric generation, consumption (Tixan drinking water treatment plant), and as a source of agricultural irrigation. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the vulnerability that users of the sub-basin will present in the face of possible extreme events due to climate change. The aim of this study was to determine vulnerability indexes for each of the users present in the sub-basin within the RCP 45 and 85 scenarios. In order to obtain such indexes, it was necessary the future projection of variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity and wind; which were obtained from large-scale climatological models. Thus, seeing the need to apply a statistical downscaling, the final results were used as input data for the hydrological model; which generated the supply and future demand. From the result of this model, synthetic series were generated. It allowed to obtain 100 possible future scenarios where supply and demand were crossed. Final results obtained indicated that in most scenarios for each user, the vulnerability varies between low and very low. However, the vulnerability increases for the months of July, August and September. These results can help users of the sub-basin to make decisions, allowing them to adapt to possible future problems caused by climate change.
Estimación de la vulnerabilidad de los riesgos del cambio climático en una cuenca de montaña
(2018) Jiménez Yucta, Stalin Daniel; Avilés Añazco, Alex Manuel
Climate change, accelerated by anthropogenic intervention due to the emission of greenhouse gases, has led society to be alert to its effects, especially with regard to water resources and the uses to which it is subjected like: water for human consumption, agricultural production, hydroelectric energy, to mention a few. For this reason in recent years actions have been taken to reduce the vulnerability of the population to these effects, however, it is vitally important to estimate vulnerability in terms of climate change scenarios, in order to be able to implement adaptation and mitigation actions to reduce the effects that that can be presented. It is for this reason that in the present degree work, a methodology was developed and implemented to achieve the estimation of the vulnerability of the risks of climate change in a mountain basin. A methodology, which is adaptable to different approaches, scenarios and available information was obtained; whose result is presented in a numeric scale in which a higher value represents a higher vulnerability level, this methodology was developed with a focus of help in the decision-making by the authorities, being a reliable tool for evaluation of the vulnerability to climate change. The study area chosen for the present work was the sub-basin of the Machángara, located in the south of Ecuador, which has limited information and is a clear example of the level of versatility that the methodology possesses, thus determining an average level of vulnerability in the largest part of its geographical extension, both in the current or base climate scenario and in the future climate scenario. In addition, important recommendations were determined that could contribute to a more detailed analysis of the vulnerability of climate change risks within the study area.