Browsing by Author "Guerra Alay, Alejandra"

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    Evaluación de cambios en la intensidad, duración y frecuencia de eventos extremos de precipitación en la subcuenca del río Yanuncay
    (Universidad de Cuenca, 2025-02-13) Guerra Alay, Alejandra; Pulgarín Guerrero, Fátima Soledad; Avilés Añazco, Alex Manuel; Guamán Mendoza, Anthony Esteban; Zhiña Villa, Darío Xavier
    This research evaluates and compares Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves of precipitation constructed using stationary and non-stationary models based on historical rainfall data from the Yanuncay River sub-basin. IDF curves were developed for return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years considering durations of 1, 2 and 3 hours and later extended to 5 hours to improve visualization and analysis. The non-stationary model considers covariates such as temperature, while the stationary model assumes time invariance. The results suggest that the transient model better fits historical data and captures greater spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation intensities, especially over longer time periods. Furthermore, the maps produced identify critical areas within the sub-basin with higher intensities, particularly in the lower areas. This study contributes to the scientific analysis of extreme precipitation variability and provides a methodological comparison between stationary and non-stationary approaches highlighting their different estimates. The research highlights the importance of strengthening meteorological and hydrological monitoring in key areas of the sub-basin and recommends further exploration of complementary methodological approaches to better understand extreme rainfall patterns in similar contexts.