Browsing by Author "Encalada Serrano, Andrea Paola"

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    Análisis de los factores que afectan la demanda de energía eléctrica y su estimación. Sector residencial del área de concesión de la Empresa Eléctrica Regional Centro Sur C.A., período 2002-2012
    (2014) Berrezueta Suárez, José Ricardo; Encalada Serrano, Andrea Paola; Contreras Flores, Carmen Alexandra
    The purpose of this paper is to present the explanatory variables of the energy demand for the residential consumers in the CENTROSUR’s concession area in order to analyze the evolution of the series and determine the relationships with economic factors, contrasting and validating the results with economic theory applicable to the study. To analyze the behavior and predict the energy demand two approaches have been used: the Method Error Correction (MCE) and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The information used for this purpose was the monthly data between 2002- 2012 of some variables which were probed to influence the energy demand. These variables are: rate, oil prices, electricity available, customers, service coverage, IDEAC, average price of electricity, average consumption. Additionally this study identifies the elasticity of the energy demand in the short and long term, under the assumption of inelasticity according to characteristics of the service and past behavior of the series.