Browsing by Author "Bermeo Moyano, Henry Vinicio"

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    Artificial Neural Network and Monte Carlo Simulation in a Hybrid Method for Time Series Forecasting with Generation of L-Scenarios
    (INSTITUTE OF ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC., 2016-07-18) Bermeo Moyano, Henry Vinicio
    Sometimes, there are time series segment, it is necessary to reconstruct information from the past, predict information for the future, in this paper a hybrid approach between Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for the reconstruction (and / or prediction) of time series with the generation of L-scenarios is proposed, in order to evaluate results from hybrid method, the Chi-square test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), functions of autocorrelation were used, additionally, the forecasting ANN is compared with ARMAX model prediction, results show that the proposed method could reconstruct the past, could predict the future from known time series segment, so that each prediction in a whole period selected generates a scenario, the L-scenarios have high sameness statistical from original information. In the hybrid method, first, artificial neural network is trained with known information, second the statistics for the MCS are estimated, then L-scenarios were generated by MCS in the selected period, these information will serve such as inputs for ANN trained, finally these outputs ANN will be the whole time series within in the chosen period, which it want to be analysed.
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    Determinación de espectros de respuesta y espectros de diseño elásticos e inelásticos para la ciudad de Cuenca
    (2016) Bermeo Moyano, Henry Vinicio; Mato Méndez, Fernando José
    With the information of seismic events in the Cuenca city collected for over ten years by the Seismic Laboratory of the University of Cuenca, the technical processes for the production of new building design spectra were performed, making further analysis with spectra which are presented in the Norma Ecuadorian Construction "NEC-SE". It shows that the "NEC-SE" overestimates the seismic effect on the locality and it is suggested to use this information for calculation and design of structures in the Cuenca City.