La inversión extranjera directa en el ecuador durante el periodo 1979-2011: análisis de su incidencia en el crecimiento económico

Abstract

According to Economic Theory, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can bring significant benefits to the receiving country because of the transfer of best adminstrative and technological practices from the investor countries. The empirical studies that have been conducted at the international level demonstrate that the contribution of FDI to economic growth is positive. However, the impact differs depending on the particular characteristics of each country, the time horizon over which investment takes place and the limitations of the methodolgies used to measure the particular impacts of investment in each of the countries studied. This study will test the theoretical suppositions about the relationship between economic growth and FDI through an empricial analysis of the relationship between FDI and economic growth, measured as the real gross domestic product per capita, in Ecuador between 1979-2011. The analysis employs the econometric vector autoregression and moving average (ARMA) model. The model of economic growth used is an adaptation of the empirical and theoretical approach proposed by Borensztein, Gregorio and Lee (1998). Building off of this model the analysis incorporates determining variables such human capital stock, government spending, the interaction between FDI and human capital stock, trade liberalization, macroeconomic instability and terms of trade. The results demonstrate a positive and significant impact of FDI on the rate of economic growth. At the same time, insufficient capacity to absorb and take advantage of technology transfers from foreign companies has a negative impact on the rate of economic growth. This is demonstrated by the negative correlation between foreign investment and human capital stock. Human capital however has a positive and very significant impact on the rate of growth of the gross domestic product. The control variables included in the economic model demonstrate that: government spending and the terms of trade have positive effects on economic growth, while trade liberalization and macroeconomic instability have negative impacts. These results appear to be in line with the theoretical predictions of Boreinztein et al. (1998), which inform rationale behind the implementation of economic policies.