Análisis prospectivo de la incidencia de la expansión urbana en el ámbito de la planificación territorial. Ciudad de Cuenca.

Abstract

Due to the rapid growth of the urban population and private motorization; expansion patterns in Latin America have begun to take shape under dispersed and fragmented models. The physical infrastructure of cities, which represent their urban space, grows ina random and disorderly manner, mostly in their peripheral areas, since they are directed to spaces that allow their occupation, in order to preserve a degree of proximity to the urban environment. In this sense, the present study proposes to define scenarios of the growth of the urban area of the city of Cuenca Ecuador for the year 2030 through the construction of space-time models, identifying areas that present undeveloped trends of change of land use over spaces. currently natural, in addition to interrelating how these areas are articulated to local territorial planning. The methodology applied to being hybridized raises Markov chains-cellular automata as part of the QGIS software complement called MOLUSCE (Modules for Land Use Change Simulation). The results revealed changes in the classification of urban land (comparison of surfaces between 2020 and 2030), affecting the reduction of agricultural soils (-0.69%), bodies of water (-0.01%) and natural vegetation (-1.40%). The areas where land changes are generated are mainly located in the outskirts of the city, which spatially match the areas projected within the local territorial planning as urban expansion land; however, social and economic issues have an impact on the reality of both projected and studied areas, as well as the lack of control of land use and management to monitor the proper implementation of sustainable plans and projects